Small Wins, Big Risks: How Limited Info Can Damage Your Career

The small-n fallacy can impact your job-related choices. Don't let it.

Picture this: You crush a presentation at work, nailing every point and getting great feedback from your boss. You’re feeling on top of the world, thinking, “I’ve got this! Maybe I should start looking for a promotion, or even switch fields. If I can kill it here, why not everywhere?”

We’ve all been there—riding the high of a win and suddenly feeling like the world is ours for the taking. But what if that one success is more of a fluke than a forecast? This is where things get tricky, and it’s all thanks to something called the small-n fallacy.

This little cognitive trap happens when we make big assumptions based on small amounts of data—like assuming one great presentation means you’re ready for the next big career leap. Spoiler alert: relying too much on small wins can lead to some pretty questionable decisions. Let’s break down how the small-n fallacy can mess with your career moves—and how to avoid it.

What’s the Deal with the Small-N Fallacy?

The small-n fallacy is a fancy term for making sweeping generalizations based on data that’s… well… just not enough. It’s when you take a limited experience, like one successful project or a single piece of advice, and assume it represents the whole picture. In life and in your career, this can lead you to overestimate your strengths or make moves without fully understanding the situation.

For example, maybe you just started freelancing and scored an amazing client right out of the gate. You’re thinking, “Freelancing is going to be a breeze!” But one client doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve cracked the code. You’re basing your expectations on a small win, not a proven pattern.

Why Are Small Wins So Tempting?

Small wins are awesome. They make you feel like you’re on the right track, give you confidence, and make everything seem possible. And hey, who doesn’t want to feel like a rockstar after a big win? But here’s the problem: small wins can also give you a false sense of security.

We naturally want to believe that a handful of positive experiences mean we’ve unlocked the secret to success. But one or two victories don’t always give you enough data to make informed, long-term decisions. In fact, they can set you up to overestimate your abilities or to expect success in situations where the odds might be totally different.